A demographic trends manifesto
Gradually, then suddenly: Demographic trends into 2050
We talk about secular demographic trends quite often. You may have heard the phrases:
“The Nigerian population is going to be the largest workforce in the world by 2050"
“The United States is going to be facing a retirement crisis”
“Japan is going to have to import majority of its labour in the future”
These are all true, and I would like to explore these from a data driven angle to provide some fresh perspectives that will really drive this point home, and shed some light on one of the defining trends facing our world today.
Population trends are a major contributor to way we think about economics and resources, and when we understand the layout of the world, we can start to put the pieces together.
When we think about what matters — we look at the distribution of ages, and the projected rise and decline of the countries. There are many other factors to consider, but that is outside the scope of this article.
Of course we never know how things will unfold, but we can infer something to make think “huh … thats interesting!”.
A visual picture is always easier to consume than rows of plain statistics.
This is all in service of learning more about the most interesting markets in the world… frontier markets which you can learn more about at
Lets start from the top — Global population growth
This is the world as we know it today — approximately 7,713,468,205 strong. Thats going to be close to 10 Billion in the next 30 years.
Not too many noticeable differences right as far as distribution goes? Yes marginally fatter at the top end of the pyramid, but not anything drastic. The amazing thing is when we break down the shifts in some of the individual countries over the same time period and show you what that looks like.
China
This definitely doesn't qualify as a pyramid — does it? A bit more like a population rectangle. The result of interferences such has the One Child Policy and others, has led to a morphed population diagram — with some age and gender ratios mismatched at critical points.
USA
The economic engine of the world is slowing, with it comes:
A potential retirement crisis
Thinking about how to effectivley sustain a work force
Extended resource planning and infrastructure.
All massive undertaking with gigantic implications for the way the world works and functions — especially when you consider its important role in the underpinnings of global governance and economics.
Japan
Japans population has been the subject of a ton of economic analysis and speculation, as they face unfavourable elderly demographics and declining population. This has led to a lot of thinking about immigration as a potential solution, which comes with its own side effects — along considerations of how this plays out on a global competitiveness scale.
Nigeria
Nigeria is going to add about 200 Million people by 2050, that will be as much as India adds (see below), and more than half of the existing population. What makes this insane — is that that is just one of the ‘African Lions’ which are poised for incredible growth if given the right tailwinds — and that is a big if.
Africa
The undoubted engine of population growth over the next 100 years. 1 billion people to be added, all coming from young to mature individuals.
They are still on the younger side by 2050, and this is a story that will continue to trend. What is amazing to think about is the massive increases in quality of life, education and technology, with reductions in poverty and disease (more below) and how this can have (and is having)
The undoubted engine of population growth over the next 100 years. 1 Billion added.
Iran
When we analyze population trends, one important factor is to take a look at where the bulk of ages which are in their prime working capacity. Iran has always been an interesting one for that — as a highly educated population, with majority in the ranges of 30–50 years old can be expected to perform well. Political and international issues continue to disrupt that raw ability — an example of where the trend is there, but the factors that are needed to assist can take a little longer to mature.
South America
From a population perspective, their time has come and gone.
Brazil
As an example of South America when broken down into a country perspective.
India
If there are going to be two places we watch, it’s going to be Nigeria and India. India is at the stage of sustained growth currently — although it may not have manifested all the way, due to various reasons.
From an age and population perspective — the next decade will be very interesting .
South East Asia
Southeast Asia is comprised of 11 countries namely: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, East Timor, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam. The growth of these nations has been powerful to watch — each with their own success stories (and disappointments).
They make up the next largest segment of growth after the Africa nations.
Europe
We haven’t broken down Europe as a whole — but the underlying trend is similar to the United States and as a result are facing similar challenges, perhaps more poignantly so.
The optimist case
As mentioned, there are many reasons to look at the next 50 years with a positive lens. There have also been historical arguments against this — and given the changes in the world, here are some data points to show how the world is steadily being equalized. Gradually, then suddenly.
An increase in Global IQ levels is typically attributed to a combination to better access to education, quality of life and importantly — the alleviation of nutritional issues and poverty.
The education component is clear with the statistics on literacy…
And supplemented with access to increasing technological capabilities and access to infrastructure (for example — Africa is THE model for mobile money payments across the globe) …
Along with some of changes to nutritional factors we mentioned before
Monsoon theory
Population growth is just one element. Underlying everything is a massive shift in the world as we know it. This growth of the future is known as ‘Monsoon Theory’ — which is following the high growth countries/continents we have mentioned, as they shape the balance of power and resources.
Taking into account the changes to come in politics, investment, climate, rights of people, religious freedom, energy independence, coalitions of new nations and trade agreements and the underlying system that the world runs on — these are not countries any one can afford to ignore.
Conclusion:
This is not a new story. The ‘Rising Tigers’ and ‘African Lions’ have been a topic of considerable research and debate over the last few years/decades — the question has always been an if/when.
As I type this, the world is undergoing a massive demographic shift that will define many facets of the way economic resources are used and distributed, and where the consumption and manufacturing will come from. Some of the largest economies in the world today are experiencing long term trends that are not pretty — to say the least. The gains appear to be coming from South East Asia and Africa for the most part.
When we look towards Africa and other nations as the drivers of future consumption, there are reasons to be optimistic, and also reasons to not expect too much — with continued inequality and corruption taking a toll.
I am extremely interested to see the changes in the world as the political landscape changes globally, and where the new generation of leaders can take their countries.
It is not a one size fits all approach, as there are idiosyncratic and global structural issues that impact each place. From having large foreign currency denominated debt, to sanctions, to the nature of products and materials produced — one thing I feel comfortable saying is to never underestimate human ingenuity.
The fact is that the new populations are currently lower income/developing, yet when we look at some of the statistics around health, poverty, access to education and technology — there are many reasons to see how the world will change fundamentally and drastically over the next 50 years.
All we can do is live it and impact what we can — I know where my bets are — frontier markets.
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